Background
In the Changing Planet: Grapevines and Drought episode, you learned how climate change is impacting one of our countries most important agricultural crops. But grapes are not the only crop in peril. In previous Changing Planet episodes, you saw how climate change is affecting crops and leaving them more susceptible to drought conditions, infestations and disease. In the case of grapes, hotter and dryer climates are affecting the flavor of the grapes and the dormancy period of the vines. It is hoped that by understanding the genetics of the different varieties of grapes, scientists can determine what is changing genetically in response to changing environments. Those harvesting maple syrup are also concerned about changing lengths of seasons and the impacts shorter seasons will have on overall production. In this lesson, you will explore changes in the production of maple syrup and decide if you'll need to find something else to put on your pancakes and waffles!
Lesson Question
How will climate change affect crop production, including the production of maple syrup?
Materials per lab team
Internet connection
Colored pencils
Graph paper
Lesson Procedure
Part I: From Tree to Table
In this lesson, we will focus on maple syrup production in Vermont. The Vermont maple syrup industry has the highest yield of maple syrup of any state in the U.S. In fact, in 2010 the Vermont maple syrup industry was valued at over $30,000,000! To learn more about how maple syrup is produced visit the "How Maple Syrup is Made" at the Vermont Maple Syrup website. Answer the questions below after visiting this webpage.
What are the characteristics of the maple trees used in maple sugaring?
Explain the process in which maple trees create sap and how the sap "runs" in a tree.
Now that you know the weather and climate conditions necessary for the sap to run up through a maple tree, where do you think these conditions are found? On Figure 1 below, use a colored pencil to color the areas you think have the necessary conditions to grow maple trees.
Figure 1: North America.
(Map courtesy of http://www.eduplace.com)
Why did you choose those locations?
Visit the Forest Service page for the sugar maple and check the range map available on this page. Use another color on the map above to make corrections to your guess. Create a two-color key for your map. How accurate were you in your original estimate? Explain.
(We will look at the above two questions again at the end of this lesson after exploring some data.)
Part II: Climate in a Maple Syrup State
Now that you know about maple syrup production and about the geographic range of the maple tree, let's look at local and regional weather and climate conditions to identify the difference between a productive maple syrup season and an unproductive maple syrup season. First, let's look at climate which includes data averaged over 30 years. The graph in Figure 2 is called a climatograph. Study it for a few minutes and then answer the questions below.
Figure 2: Climatograph for Burlington, VT. (Data from Weather.com)
Why did you select those months?
March: ____________________
April: ____________________
Total: ____________________
From your research into the conditions necessary for sap to run, what happens when the temperatures remain too high for an extended period of time in April? How does this affect the flavor of maple syrup from the collected sap?
Possible Number of Maple Sap Collecting Days
Year |
Days in March |
Days in April |
Total Days for that Year |
Difference (+ or -) from the average total found in Ques. #2 above |
2002 |
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2003 |
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2004 |
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2005 |
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2006 |
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2007 |
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2008 |
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2009 |
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2010 |
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How do the numbers compare with the numbers you found in Question #2? Explain.
What else should you consider when comparing the climate and weather for Burlington, VT, in relationship to the number of available days to collect sap? (Hint: look at your response to question #4 above.)
Part III: How Do the Numbers Compare with Maple Sugar Production?
In the above parts of the lesson you correlated daily temperature with the temperature conditions necessary for sap to run in a maple tree and determined the number of days available each year to collect sap. Now we will look at maple syrup production for those years to see how production numbers compare with temperature.
Vermont Maple Syrup: Taps, Yield, and Production for 2002-2010
(Data is from the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture)
Year |
Number of Taps (x 1000) |
Yield per tap (Gallons) |
Production (x 1000 gallons) |
2002 |
2180 |
.234 |
510 |
2003 |
2120 |
.217 |
460 |
2004 |
2300 |
.239 |
550 |
2005 |
2540 |
.201 |
510 |
2006 |
2770 |
.235 |
650 |
2007 |
2770 |
.231 |
640 |
2008 |
2870 |
.247 |
710 |
2009 |
3030 |
.304 |
920 |
2010 |
3200 |
.278 |
890 |
What additional information would you collect before you draw any conclusions about the relationship between daily temperature and maple syrup production? Explain why.
Part IV: Maple Syrup Production in the Past and into the Future
In Part I of this lesson you explored the range of the sugar maple. In this part of the lesson, we will explore how this range and possible production locations have changed over geologic time (maple sugaring does have a very long history, but it’s not safe to assume that maple syrup has been produced throughout all of geologic time!).
How will this change impact maple syrup production in the future?
Application
Our original question asked how climate change will affect crop production and more specifically how it will affect maple syrup production and your breakfast. Throughout this investigation you gathered and analyzed weather data, climate data, and production data. From all this data, what can you conclude about maple syrup production in the short term (next 20 years) and in the long term (up to the year 2100)? In your conclusion, explain the role of annual temperature variability in the production of maple syrup and the role future trends in temperature will have on the production of maple syrup. Use a separate piece of paper for your response.
Extension
What crops do you think will be more susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change? Why? Use the resources from this lesson as well as Quick Stats 1.0 from the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service to locate additional information. Focus on one crop that is important to what you eat for breakfast. Use a separate piece of paper to report your findings, and be prepared to share your results with your classmates.
Citation for the Change Atlas for 134 Forest Tree Species used in Part IV:
Prasad, A. M., L. R. Iverson., S. Matthews., M. Peters. 2007-ongoing. A Climate Change Atlas for 134 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio.